TRUMP: THE POLITICAL TSUNAMI THAT RESHAPED THE WORLD. WHAT DOES THE NEXT SIX YEARS HOLD?

"To understand a statesman, you must first understand the man who eats dinner at home, the man who gets up in the morning with his daily worries, and only then, the man who makes important decisions." Donald J. Trump is a tectonic force, an earthquake in a suit, who has redefined not only American politics but also the way power is wielded in the 21st century. To crack the Trump code, it's not enough to look at the headlines. You have to delve into the belly of the monster, into the psychology of the man, the cunning of the negotiator, and the relentless machine of the politician. It is a fascinating, and often disturbing, spectacle that forces us to ask: what the hell is going on?

Beyond Power: The Human Side of Leaders in the Digital Age

We live in an age where every text message, every public appearance, and every private action of a public figure is instantly analyzed, not only on discussion forums but also in the global digital realm. Amid this constant flow of information, we often forget that behind the politician giving his speech, the artist on stage, or the business leader at a summit, there is a human being with all their strengths and weaknesses.

The then Belgian ambassador to Mexico, Ronald Watteeuw, once told me: "Juan Carlos, to understand a statesman, you must first understand the man who has dinner at home, the one who gets up in the morning with his daily worries, and only then, the one who makes important decisions." This distinction helps avoid oversimplification.

Duality: Man and Character

Serious biographers, when addressing the life of figures like Franz Joseph Haydn, "The Father of the Symphony," first present "Haydn the Man": his passions, his weaknesses, his loves, and his frustrations. Only then do they delve into "Haydn the Composer" and his musical contributions.

This duality between the private individual and public influence is essential. In contemporary politics, this distinction becomes even more important. Idealizing or demonizing leaders can distort reality and hinder effective analysis.

TRANSPARENCY AND OPACITY IN THE DIGITAL AGE

In our hyperconnected world, where the boundaries between public and private are blurred, the challenge is even greater. Politicians are evaluated by their legislative proposals, as well as their personal tastes and family relationships. Every discrepancy in their public image is magnified.

We must evaluate politicians based on their policies, their vision, and the impact of their decisions. At the same time, we must recognize that these politicians are people who have good days and bad days, make mistakes, and have hopes. To ignore this is to deny the complexity of human existence.

The importance of the distinction between public and private life is essential to being critical but fair, allowing us to understand that a significant public contribution does not erase personal flaws, and that human errors do not necessarily negate the potential for positive impact. This teaches us that greatness and imperfection reside in the same individual.

The next time you judge a public figure, take a moment to consider beyond the media persona and ask yourself: What's behind it all? Understanding both sides allows for clearer insight and more accurate judgment.

The Man: The Big Apple and the Unleashed Ego

The world is a complex place where Donald J. Trump has had a significant influence on American politics and the exercise of power in the 21st century. To better understand him, it's not enough to read the headlines; it's necessary to analyze his personal characteristics, his negotiating skills, and his performance as a politician. This analysis leads us to reflect on the changes that are taking place.

Forget subtlety, nuance, or introspection for a moment—Trump doesn't play that game. Think of him as Trump Tower personified: bold, brilliant, undeniably prominent, and built on a foundation of boundless ambition and gravity-defying grandiosity . As a child, he was already a budding millionaire, a "difficult kid" sent to military academy but who graduated from Wharton. This isn't a tale that comes "out of nowhere"; it's the story of a man who always knew he was destined for greatness, and who hoped the world knew it, too. Psychologists have dissected him: extroverted and impulsive , a magnet for attention, easily bored by the mundane.

Imagine the average NATO meeting for this man! He's domineering and controlling , a born leader, tough, unfeeling, unafraid to command obedience. And, if that weren't enough, he's a touch bold and adventurous , defying tradition, impulsive, and, yes, prone to "bending the truth and skirting the law." All this, wrapped up in what some call "amorous narcissism" or, in political lexicon, a "high-dominance charismatic." Surprised? We shouldn't be.

The key here is his "high transference valence" : his innate ability to generate a visceral reaction in people. Love him or hate him, you can't ignore him. And for Trump, that attention, whether positive or negative, is food for his soul, the validation of his existence. It's a feedback loop where what for others would be "frank psychopathology" becomes a fundamental component of his appeal. In a world saturated with predictability, Trump is constant disruption, and that, my friends, sells.

Trump's emotional intelligence is not clearly reflected. Low empathy, high self-esteem .

He doesn't seem to lose sleep over the feelings of others. In fact, if his ego is hurt, he reacts aggressively.

It's not that he has no emotions; it's that he operates within such narrow emotional boundaries that most of us would barely recognize them.

Most striking is the description of an "older man who possesses the outward appearance and attributes of adulthood... but who is internally predominantly childlike."

Pure egocentrism: their perspective is the only reality. This explains their "poor judgment" and "low receptivity" to criticism. It's not that they don't listen; it's that they don't process it if it doesn't fit into their worldview. It's a psychological shield, an unbreakable shell of self-confidence.

Rhetoric is this character's means of communication. Direct, unfiltered, populist, and polarizing . He presents himself as the "outsider" fighting the "corrupt establishment," a champion of the nation's lost "greatness." His language is uncomplicated; he uses short, repetitive phrases that appeal to emotions and insecurities. He is a master of direct connection, using social media as his own news channel, bypassing the "enemies of the people" in traditional media. Truth, for him, is not a target, but a tool. The "hose of falsehoods" does not seek to inform, but to overwhelm and polarize, framing everything in binary terms: us versus them, good versus evil, security versus existential danger. And, yes, his 2024 speeches are "darker, harsher, longer, angrier." In the "post-truth" era, it is the perception of authenticity, not factual accuracy, that predominates.

The Negotiator: The Art of War from Real Estate to the Oval Office

Before becoming president, Trump was a negotiator. And not just any negotiator. His bible was "The Art of the Deal," a manifesto of aggression and competitiveness .

1️⃣Think big.

2️⃣Maximize options

3️⃣Use leverage

4️⃣Fight back, and above all, have fun.

The "door in your face" tactic (asking for something absurd so your real demand seems reasonable) is their daily bread. They're not looking for a "win-win" solution; they're looking for a "Trump-win" solution.

His business career is an example of strategic tactics. At the Grand Hyatt Hotel, he took advantage of New York's bankruptcy to obtain a 40-year tax exemption. With Trump Tower, he showed persistence, even though he used undocumented workers and exploitative subcontractors. In Atlantic City casinos, he bought distressed properties, even though his own casino companies went bankrupt several times.

🟢 And then there's the famous "Trump discount." He negotiates a price, and when it comes time to pay, he simply offers less. Seventy-five cents on the dollar. This led to hundreds of lawsuits for non-payment from contractors, suppliers, and lawyers. Immoral? Maybe. Effective for his bottom line? Often, yes. But it burns bridges. Maximizing self-profit over building lasting relationships.

🔵In politics, this philosophy translated directly. The extreme anchor : demanding $5.7 billion for the border wall, threatening a government shutdown.

🔴Control of the narrative: Positions himself as the sole "security fighter." He assesses the adversary, not for empathy, but to identify their vulnerabilities. And the "balls in the air" tactic: overwhelming them with multiple issues to keep the other side uncertain and gain leverage.

The 2018-2019 government shutdown, the trade war with China, negotiations with North Korea (where unpredictability is used as a strategy), and the failed attempt to repeal Obamacare are all relevant examples.

President Trump's unpredictability and willingness to withdraw from negotiations are effective tools for redefining the debate. However, these actions come at a significant cost: alienating allies, damaging long-term relationships, and creating a polarized political environment. While he may win individual battles, he frequently loses the war in terms of trust and sustainability.

TRUMP THE POLITICIAN: FROM DISRUPTION TO DECONSTRUCTION

🟥 Trump is a political disruptor. His campaign style in 2016 and 2020 broke convention with populist, nationalist, and confrontational rhetoric. He mobilized his base using emotions and fear rather than facts.

🟧 At home, his 2017 tax cuts benefited the wealthy, increasing the federal deficit. Tariffs to protect industry hurt GDP and raised prices. Pre-pandemic, the economy grew, but his policies created fiscal uncertainty.

🟨In health care, he failed to repeal Obamacare, but his regulations increased the number of uninsured people.

🟩On immigration, he prioritized border security and mass deportations, with legal challenges and workforce reductions.

🟦His judicial legacy includes three Supreme Court justices and 231 conservative federal judges, influencing reproductive rights and environmental regulations for decades.

🟪In foreign policy, the "America First" doctrine has withdrawn the U.S. from global agreements like the Paris Agreement and the Iran nuclear deal, raising concerns about U.S. reliability and creating a global leadership vacuum that China is trying to fill.

🟫Legal controversies include business bankruptcies and two impeachments. He challenged established norms and democratic processes, questioning the rule of law and institutional stability.

So what have we learned?

The figure of Donald Trump is a striking reminder that personality, strategy, and political impact are intrinsically intertwined. He is a man who has demonstrated an astonishing ability to mobilize his base, exploiting polarization and emotional appeals.

But his leadership does not come without significant long-term costs: the erosion of trust in institutions, the fragmentation of international alliances, and rampant uncertainty across all sectors.

Trump isn't just a politician; he's a symptom of a deeper shift in our society, where perceived authenticity and emotional impact can trump traditional standards of truth and coherence. Understanding him isn't about supporting or condemning him, but rather about taking a cold, hard look at the phenomenon that has rewritten the rules.

CONCLUSION: THE CLOUD OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE SEARCH FOR A NEW GLOBAL STABILITY

And now, the question that remains, learning from this era of disruption: what do the next six years hold for us on the global stage?

• If the Trump era has taught us anything, it's that stability is not a natural state, but a fragile construct that requires constant maintenance.

  
  

• Over the next six years, we can expect geopolitical volatility to remain the norm, not the exception.

  
  

• The "America First" policy, or its variants in other nations, has fractured the international consensus forged after World War II.

  
  

• The erosion of trust in alliances, the primacy of national interests over multilateral cooperation, and the willingness to use economic coercion as a weapon are trends that are here to stay.

  This means we'll see more disguised "trade wars," more competition for spheres of influence, and less appetite for collective action on global challenges like climate change, nuclear proliferation, and pandemics.

  
  

• We will witness an acceleration in the reconfiguration of the world order . China, already positioned as a global power, will continue to fill leadership gaps and seek to establish its own norms and institutions.

  
  

• Competition between great powers will intensify, encompassing not only economics and technology (the "chip wars," the race for AI), but also ideological narratives.

  
  

• Smaller countries will find themselves in an increasingly precarious position, forced to balance their relationships with multiple powerful actors without a clear global security umbrella.

  
  

• Domestically, political polarization is a disease that has spread and deepened. The Trump approach has demonstrated that division can be a successful strategy for mobilizing the base, but at the expense of social cohesion and institutional functioning.

  
  

• We will see more leaders, in different democracies, emulate his populist rhetoric and disregard for norms. "Post-truth" is not a passing phenomenon; it is a persistent challenge to the way societies process information and make decisions.

  
  

• The resilience of democratic institutions will be tested time and again, with growing tensions between the executive, legislative, and judicial branches.

  
  

• Finally, technology will play an even more defining role. Artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum computing will not only boost productivity but also pose unprecedented ethical, labor, and security dilemmas. Whoever masters these technologies will not only have an economic advantage but also immense geopolitical power.

  
  

• At the same time, social media, such an effective tool for populist leadership, will continue to amplify misinformation and divisions, making it even more difficult to find common ground.

  
  

In short, the next six years will be an era of constant turbulence. The old maxim that "all that is solid melts into air" seems truer than ever. Resilience, adaptability, and the ability to navigate an environment of high uncertainty will be the most valued virtues. It's no longer just about understanding a leader, but about understanding the seismic forces they have unleashed and that will continue to reshape our world. The discussion, as always, not only continues, but intensifies.